In August 2021 I wrote that home prices in Northern Virginia were way up. Five years later, the typical home in Fairfax County is worth $760,599, up 12.3 percent from then. Here is what happened after that update, and what I got wrong.
Five years, place by place
- Loudoun County: $671,280 to $795,391, up 18.5 percent.
- Prince William County: $494,903 to $581,036, up 17.4 percent.
- Fairfax County: $677,340 to $760,599, up 12.3 percent.
- Alexandria: $627,089 to $677,627, up 8.1 percent.
- Arlington: $759,123 to $806,890, up 6.3 percent.
On this list, the farther from Washington, the bigger the gain. The simplest thing I said in 2021, that prices were still going up, held everywhere on it.
It did not happen in a straight line
Most of the gain came in two bursts. In the year after my update, Loudoun’s typical value rose 8.0 percent and Prince William’s 7.2 percent.
Then mortgage rates climbed, and prices gave some of that back. From its high in June 2022 to its low in March 2023, the typical home in Fairfax County lost 4.1 percent. Arlington’s dip was the deepest on this list, 5.0 percent, and Prince William’s the shallowest, 2.1 percent.
It came back. Fairfax and Loudoun were above their 2022 highs again by September 2023, Arlington not until April 2024. Fairfax County rose 5.8 percent from August 2023 to August 2024, and since then all five places have gained somewhere around 1 to 2 percent a year.
What I got wrong
In 2021 I wrote that rates would only go up from there, maybe a point or two over the next few years. They went up much further than that, and much faster. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey shows the whole climb.
I also expected a slowdown, and I pictured a gentle one. It was a real dip instead, from the summer of 2022 into early 2023.
Across the river, Washington never came back. Its typical home is worth 11.9 percent less than in August 2021, $570,135 against $647,446, and it has lost ground every year since.
What it means if you own here
If you bought in one of these places in 2021, the typical home there has gained between 6.3 and 18.5 percent. That is an average across very different houses, though, and your own number can sit well above or below it.
My home values pages show the current figures for each area. If you want to know where your house sits against them, I will pull the recent sales around you and go through them with you. It costs nothing, and you can reach me at 571-496-9009.
Source: Zillow Research (ZHVI, the typical home value), monthly from August 2021 to August 2026. Mortgage rates: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, August 2021.